2008 AFC Preview
Autumn has always been my favourite of the four seasons. Maybe it’s the cooler temperatures, the leaves changing colour, or something else that’s kinda poetic. Somewhere in that list, falling somewhere in the top-1 of reason why I love autumn, is the return of the NFL. The 2008-09 season is here at last, and Beer.com wants to make sure you’re ready to go. Today we’ll start with a preview of the AFC, complete with last year’s results in parentheses, and be sure to check back in the coming days for our NFC preview and playoff predictions. Let’s go!
AFC EAST
New England Patriots (16-0, lost Super Bowl)
On Offense: New England brings back the same personnel that amassed a record 589 points last year, so there’s no reason to think the Pats aren’t going to be a powerhouse again this year. Quarterback Tom Brady remains safely behind a formidable offensive line, and gets to throw to Randy Moss and Wes Welker or simply hand off to a stable of solid running backs led by Laurence Maroney. Then he gets to go home to this. Lucky bastard.
On Defense: The Patriots boast a dominant defensive line and a solid, if aging, group of linebackers. But no team is better than New England at plugging new guys in and getting them to contribute, so expect rookie LB Jerod Mayo to help vets like Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas. It’s a good thing the Pats are so strong up front, because their secondary has questions. Losing CB Asante Samuel hurts, and S Rodney Harrison is only as good as his masking agents.
X-Factor: What to say of the disappointment New England suffered in Super Bowl XLII (I think that’s 42)? 35 seconds away from a perfect 19-0 season, there’s no question that the Patriots are going to be even hungrier this year. They might have new schemes and game plans, or even new ways to cheat, but count on them to be in the mix in January.
New York Jets (4-12, lost often)
On Offense: You may not have heard, but the Jets quietly made a minor acquisition this off-season, picking up a QB by the name of Brett Favre. On the one hand, he’s a legend and coming off one of his best seasons, and on the other, he turns 39 in October and is trying to adjust to not being the Godfather of Green Bay. To make it easier on him, the Jets have a couple of solid WRs with spectacular names (Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles). Add to that a very capable RB in Thomas Jones, and you’d think the Jets have some nice talent. The question lies in their offensive line, which is patchwork but probably good enough to let Favre be a gunslinger just acting like a kid out there.
On Defense: The Jets have a decent collection of talent in the front seven, with Shaun Ellis and Kris Jenkins manning the defensive line and exciting rookie Vernon Gholston at OLB. The Jets secondary has some holes, though, so the key for them is to get to the opposing QB, otherwise Brett Favre might be overshadowed. And that is prohibited, as written in the Constitution.
X-Factor: After some thought, it’s possible that this Favre fella might be important to the Jets’ success this year. He will bring a lot of attention to this team, which is a good thing considering they share a stadium with the defending Super Bowl champs, but if he plays like a 39-year old who didn’t even think he’d be playing as recently as a couple months ago, it won’t be wanted attention.
Buffalo Bills (7-9, but 7-7 if you don’t count New England. No, of course you do)
On Offense: Buffalo will be as strong running the ball as they are weak in the passing game. RB Marshawn Lynch is a high-energy workhorse who can run through tacklers and speed away. Apparently, he drives the same way. But he’s all the excitement Buffalo will provide on offense, since their passing attack will be about as meek as it gets. Young, marginally-talented QB JP Losman is out, and younger, even more marginally-talented Trent Edwards is in. Lee Evans is a very good WR, but it’s a lot to ask of him to carry the passing game with no credible WR on the other side of the field. Evans is good, but he’s not good enough to catch wobbly ducks in quintuple coverage.
On Defense: Buffalo is pretty solid on this side of the ball, and this defense is going to keep them in games. There is talent to be found in DE Aaron Schobel, DT Marcus Stroud, and S Donte Whitner, but will they be on the field all game?
X-Factor: There isn’t much here, so let’s choose the Bills’ continued flirtation with Toronto. The Bills have agreed to play eight games in the next five years north of the border, which may be a sign that a move is coming eventually. Will the city of Buffalo fall into a collective depression, and be unable to cheer loud enough to provide a real home field advantage? Will Toronto fans be confused by the smaller ball, smaller field, fourth down and lack of French-Canadians on the field?
Miami Dolphins (1-15, made Baltimore feel shame by beating them)
On Offense: Granted, there’s nowhere to go but up, but Miami did make some strides this off-season. Chad Pennington, recent of cast-off of the Jets (I wonder why?), is the best QB the Dolphins have had since…Jay Fiedler. That doesn’t say much about Pennington, but it says a lot about the horror show Miami has had behind center lately. Ronnie Brown was the best RB in the league until he got hurt in Week 7, and though he likely won’t be at 100% this year, he’ll be spelled by Ricky Williams, who has gone on a long, strange journey the past few years. Miami won’t be able to pass too well, since they don’t have any WRs, but they’ll be able to run the ball at least kinda okay. That’s a football term, by the way.
On Defense: Considering how much time these guys spend on the field, you would think someone would know who these guys are. But though this is a relatively anonymous group, save for the certifiably crazy Joey Porter at LB, you can be sure that they’ll be improved.
X-Factor: Bill Parcells is running this team now, and he not only won’t let this team accept losing like they did last year, he has a way of bringing good players and coaches with him. Miami won’t be as bad as it was last year, but it’s a long way back to respectability. This season will be one of baby steps…and more losing.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, lost in Wild Card round)
On Offense: Can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Steelers have weapons everywhere on offense. QB Ben Roethlisberger had his best season last year, and gets to throw to the dependable Hines Ward and emerging Santonio Holmes. Pittsburgh can also run the ball with Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall. Also hard to believe, but Pittsburgh’s offensive line is the weak point of this unit. But they don’t have to be great, just good enough to let Big Ben execute.
On Defense: Pittsburgh always has a strong defense, but this year’s squad may not be able to make a lot of big plays. The Steelers are well-coached, and they will show opposing offenses a lot of looks, but they’re pretty thin up front. That’s a problem for a team that relies on pressuring the QB. S Troy Polamalu is a beast, though, and looks like this.
X-Factor: Pittsburgh has, by far, the toughest schedule of any team in the NFL this year. The AFC North is tough enough, but they also play the AFC South and NFC East, which are easily the toughest divisions in football.
Cleveland Browns (10-6, missed out on playoffs via tie-breakers)
On Offense: Ever since I’ve been watching football, Cleveland has been a bore. Even the old Browns that left town and fled to Baltimore couldn’t score any points. But what do we have here, but a powerhouse of an offense? In Cleveland? It’s true, after QB Derek Anderson morphed into a Pro Bowler, WR Braylon Edwards became one of the best in the league, TE Kellen Winslow became as good as he thinks he is, and RB Jamal Lewis drank from the fountain of youth. Oh yeah, and Cleveland has maybe the best offensive line in the league.
On Defense: Cleveland has a solid defensive line that can stop the run, but doesn’t get to the QB enough. The Browns are thin in the secondary, though, and a lack of pressure could mean the pass coverage suffers. This is a big problem considering they play Pittsburgh and Cincinnatti twice each.
X-Factor: Anderson and Lewis were both huge surprises last year, but can they do it again? Anderson suffered a concussion in pre-season, but expects to start against Dallas this weekend. Lewis was good last year, but decidedly mediocre the years before that. Time will tell just how good these guys really are.
Cincinnati Bengals (7-9, while wearing police tracking anklets)
On Offense: The Bengals can certainly throw the ball. QB Carson Palmer is a steady pocket passer, and has great WRs in TJ Houshmandzadeh and the former Chad Johnson. However, the Bengals released RB Rudi Johnson, and will rely on Chris Perry and Kenny Watson to run the ball. We’ll see about that.
On Defense: Considering Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis is a defensive guru, it is surprising just how bad this defense has been in his tenure. They maybe be okay against the run this year, but don’t get enough pressure on the QB and leave their secondary out to dry. Incremental improvement in defense isn’t going to be enough in a division that now offers two strong offenses in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
X-Factor: The Bengals are dead last in the league in behaviour, or maybe first in the league in arrests. However you want to spin it, it’s a bad stat. If this team gets out of control like it has in years past, the Bengals are just making a tough season even tougher.
Baltimore Ravens (5-11, Super Bowl Champions? Nevermore)
On Offense: RB Willis McGahee and…yeah, that’s about it. Seriously. This offense is going to be dreadful.
On Defense: Baltimore always has a great defense, and this year’s squad is no exception. The front seven is versatile and smart, and can give opposing offenses a variety of looks. They will need to be effective, because the Ravens’ cornerbacks are pretty weak.
X-Factor: LB Ray Lewis can still make plays, and is still as scary as anything Edgar Allan Poe ever wrote. Lewis leads a proud defense that is used to winning games on its own. Baltimore won’t win a lot this year, but they will put up a good fight.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts (13-3, lost in Divisional round)
On Offense: Indy has tons of talent, but there are question marks. QB Peyton Manning is coming off of surgery, which has to be at least a little concerning. WR Marvin Harrison was injured last year and had an exciting off-season. But WR Reggie Wayne is great, and so is RB Joseph Addai. Indy is going to score points again this year, but it might be more work than it used to be.
On Defense: Indy’s defense is solid all around, but there are questions here too. DE Dwight Freeney was injured last year, so we’ll see how much of his explosiveness he’s retained. S Bob Sanders is a spark plug, but he has barely played this pre-season due to injury. Head Coach Tony Dungy is a defensive wizard, so he’ll come up with something, but again, it’ll be tougher than normal.
X-Factor: You’ve probably caught on by now, but it’s definitely injuries. The rest of the AFC South has gained ground on Indy anyway, so adding to the degree of difficulty by dealing with injuries to stars will not make for an easy slate. Don’t be surprised if Indy is looking up at another team atop the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5, lost in Divisional Round)
On Offense: QB David Garrard doesn’t make any mistakes. An example of a mistake he could make would be throwing the ball to any of his mediocre WRs. Instead, Garrard likes to hand the ball off to not one, but two great RBs in Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. It’s a simple offense, but it seems to work pretty well for the Jaguars.
On Defense: Considering this is football, if you refer to a team as “physical”, you know you’re talking about a tough bunch. And Jacksonville is a very physical defense. Just ask DT John Henderson. This is a well-balanced defense that loves to hit hard and wear opponents down.
X-Factor: Garrard was great last year, but can he do it again? How can a QB be so effective without having anyone to throw to?
Tennessee Titans (10-6, lost in Wild Card round)
On Offense: QB Vince Young is either overrated or underrated. Nobody’s sure just yet, but whatever he is, he’s the heart and soul of this offense. Tennessee doesn’t have great WRs, but they have a solid TE in Alge Crumpler, which is a mediocre QB’s best friend. Tennessee has had a revolving door at RB the last few years, and this year it’s left up to fat LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson to do the job. How did this team make the playoffs again?
On Defense: Tennessee is very strong on the defensive line, though they might employ some questionable tactics. But their front four is where the star power lies on this defense, though they’re pretty solid everywhere else.
X-Factor: This team’s biggest problem is settling for field goals and not scoring touchdowns. K Rob Bironas is a good one, but Tennessee hopes not to need him as much this year. Young needs to improve his accuracy to keep drives alive rather than allow them to break down in field goal territory.
Houston Texans (8-8, felt left out from all the playoff fun the rest of the division had)
On Offense: WR Andre Johnson is a beast, and possibly the best in the game, except that he can’t seem to stay healthy. QB Matt Schaub was considered the best backup QB in the league when he was with Atlanta, but now he’s a mediocre starter. Or is he actually any good? Who knows. He got hurt last year, and his backup, Sage Rosenfels, actually did a good job in his stead. Maybe Houston should yank their starting QB after one play and watch the backup excel in relief every game.
On Defense: There’s individual talent sprinkled throughout this defense, but this is an unspectacular unit overall. DE Mario Williams is about to become the best player at his position in the league, and LB DeMeco Ryans is great, but the Texans’ secondary is pretty weak. Weak enough to get destroyed by Indy, and weak enough to make Jacksonville and Tennessee seem effective.
X-Factor: The AFC South; Houston is not that far from becoming a good team, but they are extremely far away from the top of this division. I wouldn’t be surprised if a time comes when Houston is the fourth best team in the NFL, and yet still the fourth best team in their division.
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers (11-5, lost in AFC Championship)
On Offense: Tons of talent here, with RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates. QB Phillip Rivers is solid, and there is potential at WR with Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, though potential is all they’ve showed so far.
On Defense: Just as much talent on this side of the ball. Jamal Williams and Luis Castillo are beasts up front, and the LBs are led by chemically enhanced Shaun Merriman. CB Quentin Jammer has the best and most appropriate name for his position of anyone in the league.
X-Factor: Injuries, injuries, injuries. Tomlinson, Rivers, Gates, and Merriman all have or are coming off of injuries. That’s an injury list with star power. And that’s not a good thing.
Denver Broncos (7-9, but enjoyed that cool mountain air all year)
On Offense: There are mile-high expectations of QB Jay Cutler this year. QBs often experience breakout years in their third season, while the rest of us had our breakout years when we were 13. But Cutler gets to throw to WR Brandon Marshall, who is great but had a checkered off-season. Denver also specializes in turning nondescript RBs into 1000-yard rushers, and this year will likely be no different.
On Defense: The Bailey brothers, CB Champ and LB Boss, have not only great names but great game. Otherwise, this is a nondescript defense. Denver’s best defense will be its offense staying on the field.
X-Factor: With apologies to Cutler, it’s gotta be the running game. How they manage to run the ball so well, I do not know. But if they can do it again this year, they’ll be a tough win for opponents.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-12, don’t factor into anything of any importance to anyone)
On Offense: TE Tony Gonzalez is great, RB Larry Johnson has been great but is probably just pretty good. Other than that…blah.
On Defense: More blah
X-Factor: This is the most boring, unimportant team in the NFL, and maybe all of professional sports. The only X-Factor I can think of is if the NFL accidentally deleted them from the league, would anyone even notice?
Oakland Raiders (4-12, but these are their fans)
On Offense: 2007 1st overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell takes over at QB, and 2008 4th overall Darren McFadden will get a lot of work at RB. I guess it pays to finish near the bottom of the standings year in and year out. These guys are good, but they’re young and learning on the job. Oakland’s WRs? Not so exciting.
On Defense: Oakland has a great secondary, but a mediocre front seven. If Oakland’s offense can stay on the field a bit longer then it’ll take the strain off of this unit, but it’s likely going to be a long season for the Raiders once again.
X-Factor: Russell and McFadden have endless potential, so they could cause some excitement. They won’t win much this year, but these two present a solid foundation for the future.
